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Office Location 13340 California St.
Omaha, NE 68154
Phone: (402) 237-8772
Fax: (402) 493-4805

Lost Tax Credit Got you Down?

Posted by Jason Hellman on Tuesday, June 15th, 2010 at 12:04pm.

You didn’t get your new home bought before the Federal tax credit expired.  You’re feeling left out and foolish for not taking advantage of this opportunity.  You have never seen a check for $8,000 with your name on it.
Don’t fret.  Step out of the pity-parade and go find your new home.  Why?  Let’s look at the facts.
 
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) recently estimated that April sales surged 7.6%.  This is in direct correlation to the tax credit expiration.  If you remember Macroeconomics – as demand for a product increases, so do prices.  Did your friends pay too much for a home so they could get the $8,000 credit?  Bloomberg actually estimated a 27% surge caused by the tax credit.  Ask yourself, if there was a 27% increase in buyer activity, what are the chances that prices were in the buyers favor?
 
What about Omaha?  Omaha Area Board of Realtors (OABR) statistics through April 30, 2010 put our community in the middle of the NAR and Bloomberg estimates.  Through April 2010 there are 2807 closed and 4598 pending transactions (7405 total).  The same period in 2009 included 2635 closed and 3678 pending transactions (6313 total).  That’s 17% increased activity 2010.  But, how does activity relate to prices?
 
Are you ready?  OABR figures show the average home sold through April 2009 went for $152,436.  In 2010 that figure jumped to $158,283.  Omaha’s 17% increase in activity resulted in a $5,847 higher price on average in 2010.
 
Is the 17% increase in activity part of the natural economic recovery, or was in tax credit induced?  If it is simply the economy recovering, then home prices are on the rebound.  If it was tax-credit induced prices may still be worsening.  Look around, are your friends getting better jobs?  Are restaurants opening or closing?  How about the small boutique retailers, how are they doing?  Are Omaha’s largest employers hiring or firing?  Did you get a big bonus and a raise this year?
 
There is a significant probability that the increased activity was based on the tax credit.  After all, that’s what it was designed to do.  This would have artificially elevated home prices.  Tax credit buyers may have paid higher prices.
 
What about the cost of their mortgage?  The March 26th to April 9th spike in fixed rates shown on the graph below is a direct effect surging buyer activity (http://mortgage-x.com/trends.htm).  At the peak, buyers were paying an average of 5.21% for a 30-year note (these data are shown with 1% loan fee).  Today’s rate for a comparable transaction is 4.625% (yes, it says 4.625%).
 
Don’t stop.  Let’s assume tax credit buyers did pay higher prices.  Remember that 2010 prices are up $5,847 for the average home.  We need to compare $158,283 at 5.21% to $152,436 at 4.625%.  That’s $5,847 more borrowed and $86/month to pay your mortgage.  The 5-year cash-flow savings is $11,023.  Was the $8,000 credit really a good idea?

mortgage-trends_578

Ask yourself why you wanted a new home?  Apartment life not fulfilling?  Kids crowding your cracker-box?  Looking for that new home office?  Better schools on your wish list?  None of these factors has changed.  You’d still like a new home.  Interest rates and home prices may never be better.  Talk to your Realtor® about buying a new home today.

Jason B. HellmanJason B. Hellman is a Mortgage Planner with Dundee Mortgage Services.  With almost 10 years of mortgage experience, Jason can find the product that is right for you. Visit Jason's website - Mortgage DNA for more information about the services he provides, or call him at 402-504-9410.

 

 


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