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Office Location 13340 California St.
Omaha, NE 68154
Phone: (402) 237-8772
Fax: (402) 493-4805

Market Analysis Through January 2010 - $75k - $150k

Posted by R. Gregg Mitchell on Monday, March 8th, 2010 at 5:50pm.

West Omaha enjoyed exceptional sales activity through October. Sales did slow during November and December however. 1,441 transactions took place in 2009. Those 1,441 transactions are UP from 2008 sales (1,133) by 27%.

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Sales in November and December fell to 47 units in each month. The decline in sales activity tends to be typical for this time of the year as the market winds down during the fall as we approach the Holiday Season. In one sense the decline is healthy as it means that people focused on the Holiday Season, which seemed to bolster retail activity. Activity in dining establishments seemed to be strong as well. Both events have been interpreted as positive signals by this appraiser.

Another reason for this decline is attributed to the initial sun setting of the 1st time homebuyer federal tax credit. By November 1,269 homes had sold in this category since the legislation went into effect in February. Clearly, the tax credit has had a profound effect on market activity. Most of the sales activity in October is attributed to a last minute rush of buyers that wanted to close their purchase before the tax credit was set to expire on November 30, 2009. Despite the fact that the tax credit was extended into 2010 during the balance of 2009 was an indication that market demands in this segment for 2009 were satisfied.

90 homes sold in January. This activity was up from 2009 levels despite the fact that we had some two feet of snow on the ground by January 1st and that snow cover was still there by February 1st. We surmise that January sales are the result of some pent up demand left over from the Holiday Season and the desire by most buyers to take advantage of the tax credit extension.

Omaha continues to enjoy relatively good economic conditions. Forbes ranks Omaha as the #1 recovering economy in the United States. Omaha currently ranks #3 in Market Watch’s “Best Place for Business”. Improving economic conditions, moderate energy prices and relatively low mortgage rates and real estate prices have contributed to improved sales activity. Those conditions should continue support this improved market activity well into 2010. At this point we anticipate that sales activity in the 1st quarter of 2010 will be down a little from what we saw in the 1st quarter of 2009. Mean monthly sales activity in 1st quarter 2009 was 125. We think it will be closer to 110 per month during the 1st quarter of 2010.

Supplies jumped in January. 426 homes are now for sale, which is well up from the 252 homes that were on the market in December. This rise in inventory is a product of production builders trying to beat the April 30 tax credit deadline and some sellers positioning themselves to move up in the market. That inventory is up from the January 2009 supply of 383 homes. Supplies continue to be in balance with demand. In other words this market segment has stabilized and is regarded as one of the foundations of the market as many of these sellers become move up buyers in higher price ranges.

Bottom line, sales activity has rebounded from the Holiday lull and inventories have increased which typically occurs in a New Year or pre-spring market. While market conditions have clearly improved over the past two years there is some question relating to future demand in this segment. Did we borrow buyers from 2010 to bolster 2009 sales activity? If that is the case then sales activity in 2010 will be subdued somewhat. So far that does not appear to be the case.

 

 

R. Gregg MitchellR. Gregg Mitchell is a managing partner of Mitchell & Associates, Inc. The company offers a full range appraisal and real estate consulting services.

 

 


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